V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
316.62%
decreased by 27.30%
1 Week
312.79%
decreased by 31.13%
1 Month
299.40%
decreased by 44.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Sep 11, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.62 |
| αARCH | 0.1401 | 2.07** |
| βGARCH | 0.8153 | 14.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.0396 | 0.18 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1401 | 2.07** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8153 | 14.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0396 | 0.18 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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