V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
158.59%
1 Week
160.84%
1 Month
165.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 99% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1693 | 11.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6502 | 15.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0844 | -3.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2769 | 0.30 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0221 | 0.61 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9775 | 22.53*** |
Persistence:
0.777
Half-life:
3 days
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