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V-Lab

Alpha Compute Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

208.70%

decreased by 20.16%

1 Week

194.77%

decreased by 34.09%

1 Month

178.03%

decreased by 50.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Alpha Compute Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 4, 2020 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 86% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1706
11.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6523
15.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0790
-2.69***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2760
0.30
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0218
0.63
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9778
23.09***

Persistence:

0.783

Half-life:

3 days