Alpha Compute Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
245.73%
decreased by 36.45%
1 Week
227.63%
decreased by 54.55%
1 Month
198.56%
decreased by 83.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2400 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1795 | 3.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6386 | 6.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 5.2577 | 1.72* |
| γ2 | -7.2179 | -1.74* |
| γ3 | 2.6282 | 1.19 |
| γ4 | 1.0455 | 0.50 |
| γ5 | -4.4664 | -1.91* |
| γ6 | 3.6178 | 1.47 |
| γ7 | -0.8074 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
0.818
Half-life:
3 days
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