V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
119.51%
decreased by 5.13%
1 Week
132.00%
increased by 7.36%
1 Month
148.58%
increased by 23.94%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0919 | 1.93* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1923 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6309 | 6.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 3.4890 | 1.85* |
| γ2 | -5.4992 | -2.19** |
| γ3 | 4.4425 | 3.38*** |
| γ4 | -4.1835 | -2.82*** |
| γ5 | 1.5921 | 1.08 |
| γ6 | 0.5326 | 0.53 |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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