V-Lab
Alpha Compute Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
170.59%
increased by 5.51%
1 Week
170.93%
increased by 5.85%
1 Month
171.44%
increased by 6.36%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 4, 2020 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1070 | 1.91* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1892 | 3.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6367 | 6.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 3.6930 | 1.89* |
| γ2 | -5.8012 | -2.22** |
| γ3 | 4.5857 | 3.38*** |
| γ4 | -4.1967 | -2.77*** |
| γ5 | 1.5893 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | 0.4403 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.826
Half-life:
4 days
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