V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
103.49%
increased by 2.14%
1 Week
105.36%
increased by 4.01%
1 Month
106.66%
increased by 5.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6129 | 6.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0939 | 3.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5414 | 4.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8397 | 3.42*** |
| γ2 | -1.3264 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.7889 | 3.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.2648 | -1.05 |
| γ5 | -0.2898 | -1.04 |
| γ6 | 0.5786 | 1.99** |
| γ7 | -0.8171 | -2.82*** |
| γ8 | 1.3003 | 3.17*** |
| γ9 | -1.2921 | -3.10*** |
0.635
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6129 | 6.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5414 | 4.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8397 | 3.42*** |
| γ2 | -1.3264 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.7889 | 3.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.2648 | -1.05 |
| γ5 | -0.2898 | -1.04 |
| γ6 | 0.5786 | 1.99** |
| γ7 | -0.8171 | -2.82*** |
| γ8 | 1.3003 | 3.17*** |
| γ9 | -1.2921 | -3.10*** |
Persistence:
0.635
Half-life:
2 days
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