V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
70.70%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
73.70%
increased by 2.29%
1 Month
76.15%
increased by 4.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6732 | 6.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 3.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5971 | 5.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8569 | 3.39*** |
| γ2 | -1.3475 | -3.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.7884 | 3.03*** |
| γ4 | -0.2528 | -0.96 |
| γ5 | -0.2961 | -1.01 |
| γ6 | 0.5526 | 1.85* |
| γ7 | -0.7086 | -2.57** |
| γ8 | 0.9992 | 2.88*** |
| γ9 | -0.9221 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.686
Half-life:
2 days
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