V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
70.08%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
73.51%
increased by 2.35%
1 Month
76.32%
increased by 5.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6798 | 6.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0879 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6016 | 5.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8854 | 3.44*** |
| γ2 | -1.3860 | -3.74*** |
| γ3 | 0.7920 | 2.95*** |
| γ4 | -0.2245 | -0.82 |
| γ5 | -0.3494 | -1.15 |
| γ6 | 0.6243 | 2.04** |
| γ7 | -0.7986 | -2.76*** |
| γ8 | 1.0890 | 2.90*** |
| γ9 | -0.9691 | -2.61*** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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