V-Lab
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
108.86%
decreased by 13.22%
1 Week
105.13%
decreased by 16.95%
1 Month
102.36%
decreased by 19.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2014 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6140 | 6.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0935 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5457 | 4.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8488 | 3.43*** |
| γ2 | -1.3384 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.7892 | 3.11*** |
| γ4 | -0.2543 | -0.99 |
| γ5 | -0.3094 | -1.09 |
| γ6 | 0.6058 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.8519 | -2.88*** |
| γ8 | 1.3354 | 3.12*** |
| γ9 | -1.3080 | -3.01*** |
0.639
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6140 | 6.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0935 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5457 | 4.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8488 | 3.43*** |
| γ2 | -1.3384 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 0.7892 | 3.11*** |
| γ4 | -0.2543 | -0.99 |
| γ5 | -0.3094 | -1.09 |
| γ6 | 0.6058 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -0.8519 | -2.88*** |
| γ8 | 1.3354 | 3.12*** |
| γ9 | -1.3080 | -3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.639
Half-life:
2 days
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