V-Lab
Huron Consulting Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
39.87%
increased by 0.79%
1 Week
39.97%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
40.09%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2004 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3575 | 9.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0974 | 4.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7007 | 11.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.2054 | 3.72*** |
| γ2 | -0.3915 | -4.13*** |
| γ3 | 0.3280 | 3.72*** |
| γ4 | -0.2077 | -2.12** |
| γ5 | 0.0937 | 0.99 |
| γ6 | -0.0261 | -0.34 |
| γ7 | -0.0106 | -0.21 |
Persistence:
0.798
Half-life:
3 days
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