V-Lab
Huron Consulting Group Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.46%
decreased by 3.52%
1 Week
45.87%
decreased by 2.11%
1 Month
47.03%
decreased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5866 | 9.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1384 | 4.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5499 | 7.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.4312 | 4.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.6509 | -4.45*** |
| γ3 | 0.2168 | 1.80* |
| γ4 | 0.1390 | 0.98 |
| γ5 | -0.2551 | -1.43 |
| γ6 | 0.2194 | 1.20 |
| γ7 | -0.1944 | -1.19 |
| γ8 | 0.1958 | 1.21 |
| γ9 | -0.1589 | -1.26 |
Persistence:
0.688
Half-life:
2 days
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