V-Lab
Huron Consulting Group Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
51.72%
increased by 3.02%
1 Week
45.57%
decreased by 3.13%
1 Month
35.09%
decreased by 13.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 13, 2004 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1554 | 18.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2457 | 50.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6756 | 101.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0384 | 3.92*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 10.43*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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