V-Lab
Procter & Gamble Co/The Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
17.21%
1 Week
16.24%
1 Month
13.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 22% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.68 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0294 | 6.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1861 | 17.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8026 | 70.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.1479 | 6.72*** |
| δpower | 0.6784 | 4.82*** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0294 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1861 | 17.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8026 | 70.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1479 | 6.72*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6784 | 4.82*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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