Procter & Gamble Co/The Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
17.36%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
17.57%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
18.34%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 56% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 56% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0348 | 7.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.1386 | 10.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8060 | 77.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0782 | 3.12*** |
0.984
Persistence42d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0348 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1386 | 10.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8060 | 77.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0782 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
42 days
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