Procter & Gamble Co/The Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
21.47%
increased by 2.04%
1 Week
21.48%
increased by 2.05%
1 Month
21.51%
increased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0452 | 7.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0848 | 8.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8385 | 45.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0051 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0551 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -0.1660 | -5.28*** |
| γ4 | 0.2166 | 7.21*** |
| γ5 | -0.1489 | -4.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.0683 | 1.94* |
| γ7 | -0.0063 | -0.20 |
| γ8 | -0.0329 | -1.04 |
| γ9 | 0.0455 | 1.01 |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0452 | 7.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0848 | 8.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8385 | 45.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0051 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0551 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -0.1660 | -5.28*** |
| γ4 | 0.2166 | 7.21*** |
| γ5 | -0.1489 | -4.59*** |
| γ6 | 0.0683 | 1.94* |
| γ7 | -0.0063 | -0.20 |
| γ8 | -0.0329 | -1.04 |
| γ9 | 0.0455 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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