V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026
1 Day
44.17%
increased by 1.25%
1 Week
43.66%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
41.96%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7425 | 3.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9070 | 83.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0103 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | 0.0527 | 0.51 |
| γ3 | -0.0707 | -1.25 |
| γ4 | -0.0079 | -0.17 |
| γ5 | 0.1241 | 2.81*** |
| γ6 | -0.2098 | -4.68*** |
| γ7 | 0.2559 | 4.62*** |
| γ8 | -0.2501 | -3.66*** |
| γ9 | 0.1870 | 2.49** |
| γ10 | -0.1111 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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