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V-Lab

Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 2nd, 2026

1 Day

44.17%

increased by 1.25%

1 Week

43.66%

increased by 0.74%

1 Month

41.96%

decreased by 0.96%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 02:44 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7425
3.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0600
8.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9070
83.13***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0103
-0.14
γ20.0527
0.51
γ3-0.0707
-1.25
γ4-0.0079
-0.17
γ50.1241
2.81***
γ6-0.2098
-4.68***
γ70.2559
4.62***
γ8-0.2501
-3.66***
γ90.1870
2.49**
γ10-0.1111
-1.05

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days