V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
31.05%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
31.40%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
32.51%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7413 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0601 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9065 | 82.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0100 | -0.14 |
| γ2 | 0.0520 | 0.50 |
| γ3 | -0.0693 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | -0.0103 | -0.22 |
| γ5 | 0.1274 | 2.90*** |
| γ6 | -0.2133 | -4.77*** |
| γ7 | 0.2585 | 4.68*** |
| γ8 | -0.2502 | -3.68*** |
| γ9 | 0.1838 | 2.46** |
| γ10 | -0.1025 | -0.98 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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