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Allurion Technologies Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

271.68%

increased by 53.72%

1 Week

279.85%

increased by 61.89%

1 Month

310.37%

increased by 92.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Allurion Technologies Inc SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 12160 trading days (~48.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~12160 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8625
0.51
αARCH0.2672
0.37
βGARCH0.7328
1.02
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.5334
-0.16
γ26.4934
0.26
γ3-13.7297
-1.24
γ448.2170
2.37**
γ5-70.5737
-2.36**
γ644.4625
1.68*
γ7-15.8037
-0.91
γ81.3718
0.13
γ912.4038
1.44
γ10-21.6449
-1.64

1.000

Persistence

12160d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8625
0.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2672
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7328
1.02
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.5334
-0.16
γ26.4934
0.26
γ3-13.7297
-1.24
γ448.2170
2.37**
γ5-70.5737
-2.36**
γ644.4625
1.68*
γ7-15.8037
-0.91
γ81.3718
0.13
γ912.4038
1.44
γ10-21.6449
-1.64

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

12160 days