Allurion Technologies Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
271.68%
increased by 53.72%
1 Week
279.85%
increased by 61.89%
1 Month
310.37%
increased by 92.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 12160 trading days (~48.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~12160 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8625 | 0.51 |
| αARCH | 0.2672 | 0.37 |
| βGARCH | 0.7328 | 1.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.5334 | -0.16 |
| γ2 | 6.4934 | 0.26 |
| γ3 | -13.7297 | -1.24 |
| γ4 | 48.2170 | 2.37** |
| γ5 | -70.5737 | -2.36** |
| γ6 | 44.4625 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -15.8037 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 1.3718 | 0.13 |
| γ9 | 12.4038 | 1.44 |
| γ10 | -21.6449 | -1.64 |
1.000
Persistence12160d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8625 | 0.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2672 | 0.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7328 | 1.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -3.5334 | -0.16 |
| γ2 | 6.4934 | 0.26 |
| γ3 | -13.7297 | -1.24 |
| γ4 | 48.2170 | 2.37** |
| γ5 | -70.5737 | -2.36** |
| γ6 | 44.4625 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -15.8037 | -0.91 |
| γ8 | 1.3718 | 0.13 |
| γ9 | 12.4038 | 1.44 |
| γ10 | -21.6449 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
12160 days
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