Allurion Technologies Inc MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
283.52%
increased by 45.74%
1 Week
283.53%
increased by 45.75%
1 Month
283.57%
increased by 45.79%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 5, 2021 to Oct 12, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0119 | 0.48 |
| αARCH | 0.1605 | 2.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8395 | 21.49*** |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0119 | 0.48 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1605 | 2.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8395 | 21.49*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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