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AES Corp/VA MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

7.14%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

7.70%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

9.61%

increased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 01:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AES Corp/VA MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 1991 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0164
3.41***
αARCH0.1433
16.18***
βGARCH0.8567
108.56***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0164
3.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1433
16.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8567
108.56***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-