AES Corp/VA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
9.21%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
9.69%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
11.38%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 1991 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4419 | 4.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0709 | 9.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9242 | 117.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0008 | -0.77 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
141 days
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