V-Lab
Abbott Laboratories Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.36%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
25.75%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
27.05%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8815 | 8.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0551 | 6.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9189 | 79.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0112 | -4.13*** |
| γ2 | 0.0173 | 3.84*** |
| γ3 | -0.0039 | -0.56 |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8815 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0551 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 79.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0112 | -4.13*** |
| γ2 | 0.0173 | 3.84*** |
| γ3 | -0.0039 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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