McDonald's Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
24.23%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
24.01%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
23.25%
decreased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 22 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3546 | 9.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0523 | 6.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9171 | 72.50*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0295 | 3.85*** |
| γ2 | -0.0567 | -4.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0425 | 4.02*** |
| γ4 | -0.0144 | -1.31 |
| γ5 | -0.0005 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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