V-Lab
Appian Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
80.38%
decreased by 1.53%
1 Week
80.70%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Month
81.09%
decreased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9899 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1266 | 3.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6568 | 7.55*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0563 | 0.88 |
| γ2 | -0.1697 | -1.67* |
| γ3 | 0.3200 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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