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V-Lab

Appian Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

80.38%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

80.70%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

81.09%

decreased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Appian Corp SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 25, 2017 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9899
6.53***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1266
3.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6568
7.55***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0563
0.88
γ2-0.1697
-1.67*
γ30.3200
2.48**

Persistence:

0.783

Half-life:

3 days