V-Lab
Appian Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
67.82%
decreased by 2.93%
1 Week
67.76%
decreased by 2.99%
1 Month
67.57%
decreased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2017 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.4357 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9819 | 172.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8124 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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