V-Lab
Appian Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
67.13%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
67.10%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
66.99%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 25, 2017 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-lifev = 4.79 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 17.4190 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.0533 | 3.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9825 | 44.46*** |
| νDF | 4.7893 | 0.99 |
0.982
Persistence39d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 17.4190 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 3.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9825 | 44.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7893 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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