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Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

39.16%

increased by 2.68%

1 Week

39.09%

increased by 2.61%

1 Month

38.83%

increased by 2.35%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 5.79 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.1064
1.41
αscore0.0522
7.00***
βpersistence0.9889
117.16***
νDF5.7913
1.58

0.989

Persistence

62d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.1064
1.41
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0522
7.00***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9889
117.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7913
1.58

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days