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Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

39.33%

decreased by 1.16%

1 Week

39.26%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

38.97%

decreased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0344
1.31
αARCH0.0515
7.00***
βGARCH0.9893
114.12***
νDF5.4067
1.76*

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0344
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0515
7.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
114.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4067
1.76*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days