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Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

31.53%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

31.62%

decreased by 0.31%

1 Month

31.95%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 5.40 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.9978
1.32
αARCH0.0514
7.02***
βGARCH0.9892
114.08***
νDF5.4013
1.76*

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9978
1.32
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0514
7.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9892
114.08***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4013
1.76*

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days