V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
39.33%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
39.26%
decreased by 1.23%
1 Month
38.97%
decreased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 5.41 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0344 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0515 | 7.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 114.12*** |
| νDF | 5.4067 | 1.76* |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0344 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0515 | 7.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 114.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4067 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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