V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.24%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
33.59%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
34.69%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7562 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9075 | 83.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0024 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0406 | 0.39 |
| γ3 | -0.0669 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | -0.0018 | -0.04 |
| γ5 | 0.1097 | 2.49** |
| γ6 | -0.1915 | -4.28*** |
| γ7 | 0.2378 | 4.34*** |
| γ8 | -0.2331 | -3.54*** |
| γ9 | 0.1667 | 2.74*** |
| γ10 | -0.0742 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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