V-Lab
Howmet Aerospace Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.83%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
31.35%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
32.98%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7442 | 3.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0608 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 78.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0034 | -0.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0410 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -0.0645 | -1.17 |
| γ4 | -0.0066 | -0.15 |
| γ5 | 0.1169 | 2.72*** |
| γ6 | -0.1999 | -4.56*** |
| γ7 | 0.2442 | 4.53*** |
| γ8 | -0.2342 | -3.63*** |
| γ9 | 0.1632 | 2.74*** |
| γ10 | -0.0704 | -1.75* |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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