Howmet Aerospace Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.31%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
45.93%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Month
44.63%
decreased by 3.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1162 | 5.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.0719 | 12.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9041 | 136.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.5033 | 2.87*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1162 | 5.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 12.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9041 | 136.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5033 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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