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V-Lab

Howmet Aerospace Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

46.31%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Week

45.93%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Month

44.63%

decreased by 3.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.50) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1162
5.52***
αARCH0.0719
12.51***
βGARCH0.9041
136.55***
γleverage0.5033
2.87***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1162
5.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0719
12.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9041
136.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5033
2.87***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days