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V-Lab

Howmet Aerospace Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

35.77%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Week

35.85%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Month

36.12%

decreased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Howmet Aerospace Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.49) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1175
5.59***
αARCH0.0721
12.47***
βGARCH0.9037
135.22***
γleverage0.4904
2.80***

0.976

Persistence

28d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1175
5.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0721
12.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9037
135.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4904
2.80***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days