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V-Lab

Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

105.41%

decreased by 106.68%

1 Week

134.58%

decreased by 77.51%

1 Month

208.32%

decreased by 3.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 4, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.80) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.2680
12.54***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.8174
10.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1671
9.33***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.8046
-2.16**

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days