V-Lab
Millennium GP International Hlngs Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
105.41%
decreased by 106.68%
1 Week
134.58%
decreased by 77.51%
1 Month
208.32%
decreased by 3.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 4, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.80) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.2680 | 12.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8174 | 10.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1671 | 9.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.8046 | -2.16** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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