Johnson & Johnson AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
27.48%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Week
27.38%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Month
27.01%
decreased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.38) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 11.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 44.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9084 | 457.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3817 | 17.80*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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