V-Lab
Johnson & Johnson AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
21.88%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
21.92%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Month
22.06%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.38) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0170 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0781 | 11.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9088 | 115.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.3802 | 4.44*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0170 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0781 | 11.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9088 | 115.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3802 | 4.44*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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