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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

22.57%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

22.64%

decreased by 0.79%

1 Month

22.88%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0200
3.68***
αARCH0.0698
10.39***
βGARCH0.9187
128.71***
γleverage0.3632
4.10***

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0200
3.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
10.39***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9187
128.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3632
4.10***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days