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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

21.97%

decreased by 0.82%

1 Week

22.05%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

22.35%

decreased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0200
3.70***
αARCH0.0694
10.40***
βGARCH0.9192
129.69***
γleverage0.3593
4.06***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0200
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0694
10.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9192
129.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3593
4.06***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days