ExxonMobil Holdings Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
21.97%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Week
22.05%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
22.35%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.36) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0200 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0694 | 10.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9192 | 129.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.3593 | 4.06*** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0200 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 10.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9192 | 129.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3593 | 4.06*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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