Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

21.56%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

21.62%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Month

21.84%

decreased by 0.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysv = 8.59 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5379
1.74*
αARCH0.0629
9.90***
βGARCH0.9926
217.43***
νDF8.5941
1.40

0.993

Persistence

93d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5379
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0629
9.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9926
217.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.5941
1.40

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days