ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.70%
1 Week
22.74%
1 Month
22.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.5841 | 1.92* |
| αscore | 0.0639 | 10.08*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9927 | 238.62*** |
| νDF | 9.4121 | 1.29 |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.5841 | 1.92* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0639 | 10.08*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 238.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.4121 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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