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ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.70%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

22.74%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Month

22.90%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/26/2024

to

10/26/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysv = 9.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.5841
1.92*
αscore0.0639
10.08***
βpersistence0.9927
238.62***
νDF9.4121
1.29

0.993

Persistence

94d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.5841
1.92*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0639
10.08***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9927
238.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4121
1.29

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

94 days