V-Lab
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.35%
decreased by 0.97%
1 Week
24.36%
decreased by 0.96%
1 Month
24.42%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:41 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysv = 8.61 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5429 | 1.75* |
| αARCH | 0.0630 | 9.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9926 | 218.15*** |
| νDF | 8.6103 | 1.40 |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5429 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0630 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 218.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6103 | 1.40 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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