V-Lab
Rocket One Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
140.33%
decreased by 44.38%
1 Week
132.32%
decreased by 52.39%
1 Month
116.62%
decreased by 68.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.10 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 42.0306 | 1.63 |
| αARCH | 0.1666 | 3.97*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8624 | 10.37*** |
| νDF | 3.0967 | 2.72*** |
0.862
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 42.0306 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1666 | 3.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8624 | 10.37*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0967 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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