Rocket One Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
90.50%
decreased by 19.55%
1 Week
92.73%
decreased by 17.32%
1 Month
96.51%
decreased by 13.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2019 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 3.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 41.2336 | 1.69* |
| αscore | 0.1669 | 3.96*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8587 | 10.45*** |
| νDF | 3.1220 | 2.67*** |
0.859
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 41.2336 | 1.69* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1669 | 3.96*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8587 | 10.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1220 | 2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.859
Half-life:
5 days
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