V-Lab
Skyline Builders Group HLD Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
126.35%
increased by 18.29%
1 Week
129.39%
increased by 21.33%
1 Month
134.14%
increased by 26.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 3.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 74.7092 | 0.78 |
| αARCH | 0.1501 | 1.01 |
| βGARCH | 0.8409 | 5.40*** |
| νDF | 3.4526 | 0.72 |
0.841
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 74.7092 | 0.78 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1501 | 1.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8409 | 5.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4526 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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