Skip to main content
V-Lab

International Business Machines Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

51.03%

increased by 2.39%

1 Week

50.72%

increased by 2.08%

1 Month

49.55%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2239
3.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0664
37.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9912
425.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4339
13.14***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days