V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
51.03%
increased by 2.39%
1 Week
50.72%
increased by 2.08%
1 Month
49.55%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2239 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0664 | 37.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9912 | 425.61*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4339 | 13.14*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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