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V-Lab

International Business Machines Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

37.44%

decreased by 1.02%

1 Week

37.24%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Month

36.50%

decreased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of International Business Machines Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0264
1.72*
αARCH0.0479
7.38***
βGARCH0.9387
110.48***
γleverage0.6102
3.03***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
1.72*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0479
7.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9387
110.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6102
3.03***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days