V-Lab
International Business Machines Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
37.44%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
37.24%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Month
36.50%
decreased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0264 | 1.72* |
| αARCH | 0.0479 | 7.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9387 | 110.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.6102 | 3.03*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0264 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0479 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9387 | 110.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6102 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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