Home Depot Inc/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
27.84%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
27.97%
increased by 0.82%
1 Month
28.45%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.80) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0044 | 1.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0669 | 39.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9224 | 504.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8034 | 26.41*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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