V-Lab
Home Depot Inc/The AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.05%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
26.22%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
26.86%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.80) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0048 | 0.39 |
| αARCH | 0.0666 | 9.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9226 | 126.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.7983 | 6.59*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0048 | 0.39 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0666 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9226 | 126.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7983 | 6.59*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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