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V-Lab
V-Lab

CNH Industrial NV AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

43.33%

decreased by 3.03%

1 Week

42.47%

decreased by 3.89%

1 Month

40.05%

decreased by 6.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CNH Industrial NV AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.74) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2633
3.01***
αARCH0.0944
6.54***
βGARCH0.8423
39.15***
γleverage0.7363
3.40***

0.937

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2633
3.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0944
6.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8423
39.15***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7363
3.40***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days