V-Lab
CNH Industrial NV AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
43.33%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Week
42.47%
decreased by 3.89%
1 Month
40.05%
decreased by 6.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2013 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.74) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2633 | 3.01*** |
| αARCH | 0.0944 | 6.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8423 | 39.15*** |
| γleverage | 0.7363 | 3.40*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2633 | 3.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0944 | 6.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 39.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7363 | 3.40*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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