McDonald's Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.64%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
20.72%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Month
21.03%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0166 | 1.70* |
| αARCH | 0.0528 | 9.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9353 | 135.78*** |
| γleverage | 0.4459 | 3.71*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 1.70* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9353 | 135.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4459 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
Other McDonald's Corp Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equities