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V-Lab

McDonald's Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

20.64%

decreased by 0.58%

1 Week

20.72%

decreased by 0.50%

1 Month

21.03%

decreased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of McDonald's Corp AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0166
1.70*
αARCH0.0528
9.20***
βGARCH0.9353
135.78***
γleverage0.4459
3.71***

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0166
1.70*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0528
9.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9353
135.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4459
3.71***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days