V-Lab
McDonald's Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.36%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
21.42%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
21.66%
increased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0169 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0535 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9345 | 133.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4452 | 3.71*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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