V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.95%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
29.90%
decreased by 0.82%
1 Month
29.71%
decreased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~81 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0208 | 2.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.0488 | 7.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9427 | 127.34*** |
| γleverage | 0.2732 | 1.67* |
0.991
Persistence81d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0208 | 2.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 7.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9427 | 127.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2732 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
81 days
Other Wal-Mart Stores Inc Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equities