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Wal-Mart Stores Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.02%

increased by 0.33%

1 Week

23.06%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

23.21%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Wal-Mart Stores Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~144 daysv = 5.18 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8446
1.09
αARCH0.0537
12.90***
βGARCH0.9952
227.63***
νDF5.1837
3.45***

0.995

Persistence

144d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8446
1.09
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
12.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9952
227.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1837
3.45***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

144 days