V-Lab
Wal-Mart Stores Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25.68%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Week
25.69%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
25.73%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8518 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 51.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9952 | 909.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2251 | 13.65*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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