V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
66.08%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
67.08%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
70.53%
increased by 4.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 4.02 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 33.1498 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0889 | 9.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9831 | 73.31*** |
| νDF | 4.0189 | 3.86*** |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.1498 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9831 | 73.31*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0189 | 3.86*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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