V-Lab
Big Sky Industrial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
68.44%
decreased by 3.14%
1 Week
69.34%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
72.44%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 4.02 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 33.2183 | 1.26 |
| αARCH | 0.0893 | 9.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9830 | 72.93*** |
| νDF | 4.0156 | 3.87*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.2183 | 1.26 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0893 | 9.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9830 | 72.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0156 | 3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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