Big Sky Industrial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
53.74%
decreased by 3.14%
1 Week
55.44%
decreased by 1.44%
1 Month
61.12%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 33.3480 | 5.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0905 | 39.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9829 | 290.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0253 | 15.52*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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