Big Sky Industrial Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
45.34%
decreased by 2.65%
1 Week
47.33%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
53.96%
increased by 5.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 4.91 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 36.9443 | 1.39 |
| αscore | 0.1017 | 10.36*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9857 | 93.81*** |
| νDF | 4.9125 | 3.42*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 36.9443 | 1.39 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1017 | 10.36*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9857 | 93.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.9125 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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