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Hallmark Financial Services Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

348.98%

increased by 112.40%

1 Week

348.73%

increased by 112.15%

1 Month

347.72%

increased by 111.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

07/28/2024

to

07/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 4.57 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run175.1744
2.03**
αscore0.1543
27.13***
βpersistence0.9990
2,157.67***
νDF4.5650
13.67***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

175.1744
2.03**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1543
27.13***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9990
2,157.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5650
13.67***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days