Hallmark Financial Services Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
348.98%
1 Week
348.73%
1 Month
347.72%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 175.1744 | 2.03** |
| αscore | 0.1543 | 27.13*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9990 | 2,157.67*** |
| νDF | 4.5650 | 13.67*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 175.1744 | 2.03** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1543 | 27.13*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 2,157.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5650 | 13.67*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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