V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
3,289.36%
increased by 2,612.15%
1 Week
3,284.99%
increased by 2,607.78%
1 Month
3,268.04%
increased by 2,590.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 03:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~140 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0178 | 2.29** |
| αARCH | 0.0921 | 8.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9030 | 84.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0462 | -0.26 |
| γ2 | 0.0011 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0932 | -0.34 |
| γ4 | 0.3610 | 1.58 |
| γ5 | -0.3507 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.2406 | 1.36 |
| γ7 | -0.7675 | -1.03 |
| γ8 | 2.1392 | 1.11 |
| γ9 | -2.3590 | -1.25 |
0.995
Persistence140d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0178 | 2.29** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0921 | 8.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 84.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0462 | -0.26 |
| γ2 | 0.0011 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.0932 | -0.34 |
| γ4 | 0.3610 | 1.58 |
| γ5 | -0.3507 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.2406 | 1.36 |
| γ7 | -0.7675 | -1.03 |
| γ8 | 2.1392 | 1.11 |
| γ9 | -2.3590 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
140 days
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