V-Lab
Hallmark Financial Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026
1 Day
199.79%
decreased by 14.06%
1 Week
208.18%
decreased by 5.67%
1 Month
230.98%
increased by 17.13%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 11:59 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7364 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1603 | 5.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7906 | 19.86*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0876 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 0.1237 | 0.68 |
| γ3 | -0.2593 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 0.4531 | 4.13*** |
| γ5 | -0.3193 | -3.72*** |
| γ6 | 0.1356 | 1.67* |
| γ7 | -0.0529 | -0.56 |
| γ8 | 0.1812 | 1.33 |
| γ9 | -0.3448 | -2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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