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V-Lab

Hallmark Financial Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026

1 Day

199.79%

decreased by 14.06%

1 Week

208.18%

decreased by 5.67%

1 Month

230.98%

increased by 17.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, June 16, 2026 at 11:59 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7364
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1603
5.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7906
19.86***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0876
-0.80
γ20.1237
0.68
γ3-0.2593
-1.79*
γ40.4531
4.13***
γ5-0.3193
-3.72***
γ60.1356
1.67*
γ7-0.0529
-0.56
γ80.1812
1.33
γ9-0.3448
-2.79***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days