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Hallmark Financial Services Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

3,289.36%

increased by 2,612.15%

1 Week

3,284.99%

increased by 2,607.78%

1 Month

3,268.04%

increased by 2,590.83%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 03:57 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hallmark Financial Services Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1990 to Jul 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 140 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~140 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0178
2.29**
αARCH0.0921
8.01***
βGARCH0.9030
84.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0462
-0.26
γ20.0011
0.00
γ3-0.0932
-0.34
γ40.3610
1.58
γ5-0.3507
-2.09**
γ60.2406
1.36
γ7-0.7675
-1.03
γ82.1392
1.11
γ9-2.3590
-1.25

0.995

Persistence

140d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0178
2.29**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0921
8.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9030
84.90***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0462
-0.26
γ20.0011
0.00
γ3-0.0932
-0.34
γ40.3610
1.58
γ5-0.3507
-2.09**
γ60.2406
1.36
γ7-0.7675
-1.03
γ82.1392
1.11
γ9-2.3590
-1.25

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

140 days