V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
860.45%
decreased by 103.90%
1 Week
921.69%
decreased by 42.66%
1 Month
1,127.16%
increased by 162.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0803 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.2618 | 2.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7328 | 8.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8190 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | -13.9517 | -0.37 |
| γ3 | 70.6882 | 1.37 |
| γ4 | -102.1895 | -1.62 |
| γ5 | 54.0076 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -12.3562 | -0.49 |
| γ7 | 8.9263 | 0.42 |
| γ8 | -6.1998 | -0.31 |
| γ9 | 15.1798 | 0.74 |
| γ10 | -24.6386 | -1.30 |
0.995
Persistence126d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0803 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2618 | 2.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7328 | 8.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.8190 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | -13.9517 | -0.37 |
| γ3 | 70.6882 | 1.37 |
| γ4 | -102.1895 | -1.62 |
| γ5 | 54.0076 | 1.15 |
| γ6 | -12.3562 | -0.49 |
| γ7 | 8.9263 | 0.42 |
| γ8 | -6.1998 | -0.31 |
| γ9 | 15.1798 | 0.74 |
| γ10 | -24.6386 | -1.30 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
126 days
Other Semilux International Ltd -Redh Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities