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Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

860.45%

decreased by 103.90%

1 Week

921.69%

decreased by 42.66%

1 Month

1,127.16%

increased by 162.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Semilux International Ltd -Redh S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2022 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 126 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~126 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0803
1.27
αARCH0.2618
2.91***
βGARCH0.7328
8.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8190
-0.04
γ2-13.9517
-0.37
γ370.6882
1.37
γ4-102.1895
-1.62
γ554.0076
1.15
γ6-12.3562
-0.49
γ78.9263
0.42
γ8-6.1998
-0.31
γ915.1798
0.74
γ10-24.6386
-1.30

0.995

Persistence

126d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0803
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2618
2.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7328
8.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.8190
-0.04
γ2-13.9517
-0.37
γ370.6882
1.37
γ4-102.1895
-1.62
γ554.0076
1.15
γ6-12.3562
-0.49
γ78.9263
0.42
γ8-6.1998
-0.31
γ915.1798
0.74
γ10-24.6386
-1.30

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

126 days