Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
441.57%
decreased by 18.66%
1 Week
431.04%
decreased by 29.19%
1 Month
402.82%
decreased by 57.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0471 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2308 | 1.89* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6975 | 5.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -5.5044 | -0.60 |
| γ2 | 6.2472 | 0.44 |
| γ3 | 30.8274 | 2.71*** |
| γ4 | -69.6680 | -3.29*** |
| γ5 | 50.3198 | 1.81* |
| γ6 | -18.4848 | -0.87 |
| γ7 | 14.1241 | 1.07 |
| γ8 | -8.8834 | -0.60 |
| γ9 | -2.0085 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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