V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
2,828.59%
decreased by 228.78%
1 Week
3,152.18%
increased by 94.81%
1 Month
4,187.94%
increased by 1,130.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 09:24 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 255 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0996 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2475 | 3.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7498 | 10.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -4.2030 | -0.37 |
| γ2 | 4.4700 | 0.26 |
| γ3 | 33.0192 | 2.41** |
| γ4 | -77.6915 | -2.75*** |
| γ5 | 65.5157 | 1.62 |
| γ6 | -34.0138 | -1.01 |
| γ7 | 8.7935 | 0.29 |
| γ8 | 40.7898 | 0.74 |
| γ9 | -62.4574 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
255 days
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