V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
1,961.57%
decreased by 191.53%
1 Week
2,003.33%
decreased by 149.77%
1 Month
2,159.49%
increased by 6.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 249 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1063 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2537 | 3.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7435 | 9.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.9492 | 0.05 |
| γ2 | -17.3034 | -0.43 |
| γ3 | 74.1594 | 1.34 |
| γ4 | -105.1698 | -1.56 |
| γ5 | 55.1422 | 1.11 |
| γ6 | -11.8270 | -0.45 |
| γ7 | 7.1203 | 0.33 |
| γ8 | -5.3020 | -0.24 |
| γ9 | 20.3752 | 0.77 |
| γ10 | -34.2686 | -1.34 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
249 days
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