V-Lab
Semilux International Ltd -Redh Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
924.25%
decreased by 111.06%
1 Week
994.35%
decreased by 40.96%
1 Month
1,227.87%
increased by 192.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 127 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0863 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2650 | 2.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7295 | 8.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2735 | 0.01 |
| γ2 | -16.2828 | -0.40 |
| γ3 | 72.6129 | 1.27 |
| γ4 | -101.1686 | -1.50 |
| γ5 | 49.8267 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | -8.3097 | -0.34 |
| γ7 | 5.3033 | 0.25 |
| γ8 | -3.5388 | -0.16 |
| γ9 | 17.7422 | 0.62 |
| γ10 | -30.4368 | -1.13 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
127 days
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