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Luna Innovations Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

88.05%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

96.96%

increased by 8.87%

1 Month

113.12%

increased by 25.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Luna Innovations Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 2, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0571
2.74***
αARCH0.1218
5.91***
βGARCH0.7675
19.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.3125
0.65
γ2-0.7766
-1.05
γ30.8389
1.92*
γ4-0.6189
-2.02**
γ50.3772
1.81*
γ6-0.1166
-0.69
γ7-0.1273
-0.68
γ80.3830
1.75*
γ9-0.4161
-1.60
γ100.1032
0.49

0.889

Persistence

6d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0571
2.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1218
5.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7675
19.18***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.3125
0.65
γ2-0.7766
-1.05
γ30.8389
1.92*
γ4-0.6189
-2.02**
γ50.3772
1.81*
γ6-0.1166
-0.69
γ7-0.1273
-0.68
γ80.3830
1.75*
γ9-0.4161
-1.60
γ100.1032
0.49

Persistence:

0.889

Half-life:

6 days