V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
89.14%
increased by 0.25%
1 Week
98.06%
increased by 9.17%
1 Month
114.30%
increased by 25.41%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 09:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0515 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1214 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7684 | 19.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3053 | 0.64 |
| γ2 | -0.7671 | -1.05 |
| γ3 | 0.8371 | 1.92* |
| γ4 | -0.6221 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | 0.3834 | 1.81* |
| γ6 | -0.1237 | -0.73 |
| γ7 | -0.1223 | -0.66 |
| γ8 | 0.3859 | 1.78* |
| γ9 | -0.4339 | -1.68* |
| γ10 | 0.1246 | 0.60 |
0.890
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0515 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1214 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7684 | 19.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3053 | 0.64 |
| γ2 | -0.7671 | -1.05 |
| γ3 | 0.8371 | 1.92* |
| γ4 | -0.6221 | -2.02** |
| γ5 | 0.3834 | 1.81* |
| γ6 | -0.1237 | -0.73 |
| γ7 | -0.1223 | -0.66 |
| γ8 | 0.3859 | 1.78* |
| γ9 | -0.4339 | -1.68* |
| γ10 | 0.1246 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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