V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
103.70%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
115.15%
increased by 11.47%
1 Month
133.79%
increased by 30.11%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9886 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1344 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7347 | 17.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1536 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | -0.4837 | -1.00 |
| γ3 | 0.6293 | 1.89* |
| γ4 | -0.5364 | -1.76* |
| γ5 | 0.4507 | 1.56 |
| γ6 | -0.3722 | -1.68* |
| γ7 | 0.3374 | 1.74* |
| γ8 | -0.1740 | -0.81 |
| γ9 | -0.1066 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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