V-Lab
Luna Innovations Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
102.60%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
110.01%
increased by 7.77%
1 Month
123.54%
increased by 21.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 01:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2006 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0415 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1233 | 5.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7609 | 18.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3059 | 0.64 |
| γ2 | -0.7690 | -1.05 |
| γ3 | 0.8351 | 1.93* |
| γ4 | -0.6129 | -2.04** |
| γ5 | 0.3695 | 1.82* |
| γ6 | -0.1080 | -0.64 |
| γ7 | -0.1322 | -0.71 |
| γ8 | 0.3729 | 1.71* |
| γ9 | -0.3803 | -1.46 |
| γ10 | 0.0623 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.884
Half-life:
6 days
Other Luna Innovations Inc Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equities