V-Lab
Victoria's Secret & Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
65.13%
decreased by 1.79%
1 Week
67.19%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
69.34%
increased by 2.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8855 | 8.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0924 | 1.81* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6568 | 4.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0121 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.749
Half-life:
2 days
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