V-Lab
Victoria's Secret & Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
66.33%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Week
68.13%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
69.99%
increased by 1.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8748 | 8.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 1.77* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6557 | 4.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0135 | -1.05 |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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