V-Lab
Victoria's Secret & Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
63.91%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
63.47%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Month
62.92%
decreased by 1.72%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 5.42 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.5723 | 1.99** |
| αARCH | 0.0577 | 0.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.7850 | 8.93*** |
| νDF | 5.4179 | 0.16 |
0.785
Persistence3d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.5723 | 1.99** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 0.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7850 | 8.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4179 | 0.16 |
Persistence:
0.785
Half-life:
3 days
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