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V-Lab

Victoria's Secret & Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

95.60%

increased by 29.51%

1 Week

88.22%

increased by 22.13%

1 Month

79.67%

increased by 13.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Victoria's Secret & Co SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 3, 2021 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9307
6.32***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0965
1.93*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6492
4.71***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0099
0.17

Persistence:

0.746

Half-life:

2 days