V-Lab
Victoria's Secret & Co Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
95.60%
increased by 29.51%
1 Week
88.22%
increased by 22.13%
1 Month
79.67%
increased by 13.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 3, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 3, 2021 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9307 | 6.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0965 | 1.93* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6492 | 4.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0099 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.746
Half-life:
2 days
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