V-Lab
AGNT Inc Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
67.40%
increased by 10.29%
1 Week
65.15%
increased by 8.04%
1 Month
63.26%
increased by 6.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2014 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1747 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5021 | 5.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0867 | -0.21 |
| γ2 | 0.7899 | 1.35 |
| γ3 | -1.1027 | -2.86*** |
| γ4 | 0.9976 | 3.17*** |
| γ5 | -1.2801 | -4.37*** |
| γ6 | 0.9580 | 3.12*** |
| γ7 | -0.3727 | -1.20 |
| γ8 | 0.3953 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.677
Half-life:
2 days
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