V-Lab
AGNT Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
100.49%
increased by 1.74%
1 Week
101.37%
increased by 2.62%
1 Month
104.83%
increased by 6.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 396.2032 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0955 | 71.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 7,511.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4608 | 47.11*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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