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Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

24.56%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

24.61%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

24.81%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8081
0.96
αARCH0.0598
6.00***
βGARCH0.9872
68.62***
νDF4.8112
1.75*

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8081
0.96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0598
6.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9872
68.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8112
1.75*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days