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Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.96%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Week

27.93%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Month

27.81%

decreased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:22 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8187
0.95
αARCH0.0597
6.01***
βGARCH0.9873
68.87***
νDF4.8067
1.76*

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8187
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0597
6.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9873
68.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8067
1.76*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days