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Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

26.04%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

26.06%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Month

26.11%

decreased by 1.23%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8147
3.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0595
24.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9875
281.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8264
7.08***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days