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V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

33.45%

increased by 3.27%

1 Week

33.30%

increased by 3.12%

1 Month

32.74%

increased by 2.56%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8242
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0597
24.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
275.42***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7999
7.06***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days