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Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

31.74%

increased by 0.40%

1 Week

31.62%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

31.19%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.8229
0.95
αscore0.0594
6.02***
βpersistence0.9875
69.29***
νDF4.8114
1.76*

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.8229
0.95
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0594
6.02***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9875
69.29***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8114
1.76*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days