Skip to main content
V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

34.60%

decreased by 0.86%

1 Week

34.42%

decreased by 1.04%

1 Month

33.77%

decreased by 1.69%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8222
3.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0600
24.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
279.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8308
7.08***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days