V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.04%
decreased by 1.30%
1 Week
26.06%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
26.11%
decreased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8147 | 3.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0595 | 24.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 281.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8264 | 7.08*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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