Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
34.60%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
34.42%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Month
33.77%
decreased by 1.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8222 | 3.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 24.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 279.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8308 | 7.08*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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