Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
31.74%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
31.62%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
31.19%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.8229 | 0.95 |
| αscore | 0.0594 | 6.02*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9875 | 69.29*** |
| νDF | 4.8114 | 1.76* |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.8229 | 0.95 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0594 | 6.02*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 69.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8114 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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