V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
29.19%
increased by 0.94%
1 Week
29.13%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
28.91%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8237 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0597 | 6.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9874 | 68.99*** |
| νDF | 4.8052 | 1.76* |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8237 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0597 | 6.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 68.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8052 | 1.76* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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