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Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

29.19%

increased by 0.94%

1 Week

29.13%

increased by 0.88%

1 Month

28.91%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8237
0.95
αARCH0.0597
6.01***
βGARCH0.9874
68.99***
νDF4.8052
1.76*

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8237
0.95
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0597
6.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
68.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8052
1.76*

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days