V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
33.45%
increased by 3.27%
1 Week
33.30%
increased by 3.12%
1 Month
32.74%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8242 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0597 | 24.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 275.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7999 | 7.06*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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