V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
24.56%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
24.61%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
24.81%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8081 | 0.96 |
| αARCH | 0.0598 | 6.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9872 | 68.62*** |
| νDF | 4.8112 | 1.75* |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8081 | 0.96 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0598 | 6.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9872 | 68.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8112 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
Other Merck & Co Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equities