V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.12%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
26.12%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
26.15%
decreased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 381% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 381% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0117 | 1.51 |
| βGARCH | 0.9479 | 105.02*** |
| γleverage | 0.0445 | 3.03*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0117 | 1.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9479 | 105.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0445 | 3.03*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
Other Merck & Co Inc Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equities