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Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

27.31%

increased by 0.35%

1 Week

27.28%

increased by 0.32%

1 Month

27.16%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 384% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 384% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0500
2.94***
αARCH0.0116
1.51
βGARCH0.9480
105.20***
γleverage0.0446
3.06***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0500
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0116
1.51
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9480
105.20***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0446
3.06***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days