V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.21%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
28.15%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
27.92%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 371% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 371% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0119 | 1.53 |
| βGARCH | 0.9478 | 105.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0442 | 3.00*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0119 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9478 | 105.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0442 | 3.00*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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