V-Lab
Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
27.43%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
27.39%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
27.22%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 391% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0550 | 11.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0124 | 5.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9431 | 393.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0485 | 11.95*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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