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Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.12%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Week

26.12%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

26.15%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 11:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 381% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 381% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0500
2.94***
αARCH0.0117
1.51
βGARCH0.9479
105.02***
γleverage0.0445
3.03***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0500
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0117
1.51
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9479
105.02***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0445
3.03***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days