Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
27.31%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
27.28%
increased by 0.32%
1 Month
27.16%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 384% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 384% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0116 | 1.51 |
| βGARCH | 0.9480 | 105.20*** |
| γleverage | 0.0446 | 3.06*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0500 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0116 | 1.51 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9480 | 105.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0446 | 3.06*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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