Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

28.21%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

28.15%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

27.92%

decreased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck & Co Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 371% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 371% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0500
2.94***
αARCH0.0119
1.53
βGARCH0.9478
105.06***
γleverage0.0442
3.00***

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0500
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0119
1.53
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9478
105.06***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0442
3.00***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days