MindForge Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
181.59%
1 Week
185.42%
1 Month
199.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7864 | 0.98 |
| αARCH | 0.2165 | 1.46 |
| βGARCH | 0.8528 | 14.77*** |
| γleverage | -0.1386 | -0.95 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7864 | 0.98 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2165 | 1.46 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8528 | 14.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1386 | -0.95 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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