Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

MindForge Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

179.61%

decreased by 12.70%

1 Week

183.59%

decreased by 8.72%

1 Month

198.73%

increased by 6.42%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of MindForge Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8718
0.99
αARCH0.2217
1.38
βGARCH0.8474
14.05***
γleverage-0.1382
-0.88

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8718
0.99
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2217
1.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8474
14.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1382
-0.88

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days