V-Lab
MindForge Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
292.51%
1 Week
295.28%
1 Month
306.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 154% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2336 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2406 | 5.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 52.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1460 | -3.13*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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