V-Lab
MindForge Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
206.75%
1 Week
210.23%
1 Month
223.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8718 | 0.99 |
| αARCH | 0.2217 | 1.38 |
| βGARCH | 0.8474 | 14.05*** |
| γleverage | -0.1382 | -0.88 |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8718 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2217 | 1.38 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8474 | 14.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1382 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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