V-Lab
MindForge Inc Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
242.07%
1 Week
233.22%
1 Month
209.17%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 1.15 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8816 | 0.87 |
| αARCH | 0.3181 | 3.99*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6819 | 7.87*** |
| γleverage | -0.0553 | -0.44 |
| δpower | 1.1498 | 2.04** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8816 | 0.87 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3181 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6819 | 7.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0553 | -0.44 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1498 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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