V-Lab
Keel Infrastructure Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
87.61%
1 Week
80.02%
1 Month
60.42%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 09:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 21, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 0.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0438 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.2208 | 8.68*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7772 | 28.61*** |
| γleverage | -0.0272 | -0.69 |
| δpower | 0.6189 | 0.92 |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0438 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2208 | 8.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 28.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0272 | -0.69 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6189 | 0.92 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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