V-Lab
Chevron Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.42%
1 Week
20.82%
1 Month
19.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.23 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0647 | 7.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.2051 | 18.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7689 | 61.21*** |
| γleverage | 0.1100 | 6.19*** |
| δpower | 1.2305 | 6.58*** |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0647 | 7.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2051 | 18.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7689 | 61.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1100 | 6.19*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2305 | 6.58*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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